How to win NBA bets in the over/under points market

By Ucatchers

Do you ever get fed up with seeing people on social media boasting about their betting wins?

Well, with the NBA season about to get underway we have decided to look at how you can make profits betting on the over or under points market.

What is the over/under points market?

The over/under points market is exactly what it sounds like. You are betting on whether there will be more or less points scored than a benchmark set by the bookmaker. That benchmark is generally set with a decimal e.g. 99.5 points.

The reason for this is to avoid confusion over whether or not a bet wins; if you bet on over 100 points and the game ends bang on 100 have you actually won? By dropping it by a half point the total score is either over or under.

Your bet would look something like the below:

‘I bet there will be more than 180.5 points’ or ‘I bet there will be fewer than 180.5 points’.

Why is the market so popular?

You’ll find that the over/under markets is one of the most popular with basketball punters because of how straight forward it is. The biggest benefit you have straight from the tip-off is that you don’t actually care who wins the game. Whether a match is expected to be one sided domination or an evenly contested affair it doesn’t matter – just as long as the points get put on the board.


Providing you bet on ‘over’, the other big benefit you have with over/under points bets is that they don’t need the match to finish before they’re settled. As soon as your points benchmark is hit, your bet will paid out. Most online bookies will have the winnings in your account within a matter of minutes meaning you can reinvest as you wish to maximise returns.


Finally, when it comes to completing research there are few markets that are easier to tap into in the world of NBA betting. This means you can hand pick games that stack the odds in your favour.

What is the research you should do?

There are three parts to the over/under points research strategy. The first is really obvious; find out how many points teams average in a game. From here though, you’d want to build that picture up in more detail by splitting the data across matches completed at home and on the road.

The logic behind doing this ticks two boxes – the stats can vary a fair bit between home and away matches and, more importantly, once you have the split you can easily pick out matches that meet the criteria.

What we mean by this is that if Team A are at home and average 105 points in their home fixtures and Team B average 90 in their away games then they should combine as a solid bet to share over 179.5 when they play each other at Team A’s venue.

Also, avoid betting on overrated teams and players. You can check a complete list of the most overrated NBA players here:

An example 

We appreciate talking through the hypothetical won’t necessarily convince so we’ll take a look at a real life example of our logic.

Last season, the Milwaukee Bucks averaged 122 points when playing at home (this is seven higher than the 115 average from games on the road).

The Dallas Mavericks averaged 118 points on the road with their home games coming in slightly lower at 116.

In theory, those two playing against each other at the Bucks home court, Fiserv Forum, should have been a high scoring game. It proved exactly that as the duo shared 236 points.

A couple of points to remember

First and foremost, this statistical look at points gives you a better insight as to how a match will go. You are still gambling though so nothing is a 100% nailed on. That said, if you use this approach every time, you should find yourself picking plenty of winners.

Also, the example cited above looks at last season. It’s not irrelevant but as the new campaign gets underway don’t forget to look at the form of how teams have been scoring too.

Finally, bet safe and good luck with your over/under points betting.

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